Is the 'cocoa crisis' over for chocolate?

The good news for chocolate lovers is that there could be some relief from rising prices soon as cocoa futures prices are starting to ease after hitting record highs, according to a new international research report by agribusiness banking specialist Rabobank.

In the report, ‘Chocolate retail prices hit predicted highs — end of surge in sight’, the bank’s RaboResearch division found while there will be some respite from price increases, retail chocolate prices will remain well above pre-‘cocoa crisis’ levels, signalling a new normal for the industry.

Chocolate makers adapt

Chocolate manufacturers and retailers have been adapting to the volatile market, balancing cost recovery with consumer retention, the report said.

Joules said chocolate manufacturers are employing strategies like ‘shrinkflation’ and ‘skimpflation’ to protect margins without losing consumers.

“Shrinkflation involves reducing pack sizes, while skimpflation changes recipes to lower cocoa content, often replacing cocoa butter with cheaper fats or fillers,” he said.

Joules said in some European markets, these changes have altered products to the extent that they no longer meet the legal definition of “chocolate”, forcing brands to update product descriptions.

Joules said the worst of the ‘cocoa shock’ appears to be over, with cocoa futures expected to fall significantly by mid-2027, but some of these adaptation strategies may remain embedded.

Long-term strategies for chocolate makers

Joules said major industry players are investing in novel cocoa cultivation techniques and cocoa-free innovations to reduce reliance on a single supply chain, aiming to expand choice and build future resilience.

“Technologies such as lab-grown cocoa and precision fermentation are part of this strategic shift,” he said.

“The chocolate market is entering a new era of higher costs and persistent volatility, requiring agility and continuous adaptation from industry players. While the peak of chocolate retail price inflation may be behind us, the pressure remains, and the industry is hedging its bets for a resilient future.”

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