Retail sales expected to slow; food retailing eases

Year-on-year growth in retail sales is expected to slow, the 17th AFGC CHEP Retail Index suggests. The index shows growth of 4% year-on-year in the March quarter, slowing to 3% by the June quarter.

Retail Trade Turnover for March is forecast to be $24 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.2% for that month. However, turnover is expected to drop to $23.9 billion and year-on-year growth will slow to 3.1% for May.

Year-on-year growth, March 2014 to May 2015.

“The growth in food retailing has eased a little in recent months and is now slightly below the growth rate for total retail sales. As the Australian economy continues to unwind from the mining boom, a stronger labour market will be needed for strength in retail sales growth to be sustained,” said Dr Geoffrey Annison, Australian Food and Grocery Council deputy chief executive.

Despite being lower than September 2014 figures, sales results for retailers over the year to February 2015 was stronger than the forecast in the preceding AFGC CHEP Retail Index: predicted growth was 2.5%, while actual growth was 4%.

The next AFGC CHEP Retail Index will be released in July 2015. The index, plus further background information, is available from www.afgc.org.au and www.chep.com.

Retail trade turnover - $millions.