The future of food under weight-loss regimes

According to Rabobank’s latest global report, ‘Every bite counts: GLP-1s and the future of food’, weight loss medications have marked a turning point for food consumption.

While the scale of the shift in consumers’ eating habits is still evolving, the report made it clear that no (food) category is immune as users of these medicines are eating both less food and differently.

“Not everyone will use GLP-1s, but the user base will grow large enough to shape mainstream (food) demand,” the report forecasts. The change is predicted to be similar to that experienced recently with the vegan, ‘flexitarian’ and wellness-driven trends.

Adoption of weight loss medications — such as glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (known as GLP-1s) — is surging in the United States, with Europe, and particularly the United Kingdom, following rapidly, according to the RaboResearch.

Australia is not far behind, said RaboResearch Australia general manager Stefan Vogel, with recent public health research¹ indicating total Australian GLP-1 sales increased almost tenfold from May 2020 to reach 496,875 units in April 2025.

Implications for the food sector — is less better?

For the food sector, the growth in popularity of weight loss medication across the globe represents both a disruption and opportunity for the industry.

“People will eat less and growth will hinge on creating more value per bite,” the report said.

‘Less but better’ may become the norm, the report predicts.

The two main behavioural changes among weight-loss medication users that will have impacts for the food sector are noted by Vogel as: appetite suppression and altered taste perception.

“Appetite suppression reduces overall food intake among users of weight loss medication and makes portion-controlled, nutrient-dense foods more sought after,” Vogel said.

“Altered taste perception reduces taste sensitivity and dulls cravings, shifting indulgence away from pure flavour intensity towards multi-sensory experiences where texture, aroma and visual appeal play a bigger role in delivering satisfaction.”

The impacts in each food category are expected to vary, with the report noting that snacks and indulgent staples face sharper disruption so will need to evolve; and dairy, fresh foods and functional beverages are better positioned to benefit.

Vogel said a large US-based study had indicated households with at least one GLP-1 user reduced their grocery spending by approximately 6% within 6 months of adoption of the medication.

“Purchases of calorie-dense, processed items — such as chips, sweet bakery goods and soft drinks — declined significantly, while spending on high-protein dairy products, fresh produce and nutrition bars showed modest increases,” he said.

“Users of GLP-1s are changing their eating habits and often also those of the whole household — especially cutting back on calorie-dense products containing sugar and fat and likely also on alcohol. But weight loss due to these medications also comes with muscle loss which can be somewhat countered by increased protein intake, leading to greater demand for high protein food, particularly dairy products and nutrition bars, as well as fresh produce.”

Vogel said while sugar, wine and beer producers would most notably be negatively impacted by the changed food consumption patterns, studies in the US showed consumer spending on meat and eggs also fell in line with the reduction in average grocery spend seen among GLP-1 users.

“The winners are producers of fresh produce and high-protein foods and food supplements,” he said.

Rather than creating new food-consumption trends though, the report says GLP-1s are intensifying existing trends that are already shaping the market. These include: high protein, gut health and digestive comfort, hydration and nutrient density, portion control and mindful indulgence, and avoidance of ultra-processed foods.

Vogel said the demand for protein among GLP-1s users was being fuelled due to its role in satiety, metabolic health and muscle preservation.

“Yoghurts, prebiotics and probiotics are also sought for improving food tolerance and enhancing digestive wellness, which can be an issue for those taking these medications. We are also seeing a demand for functional beverages with electrolytes and fortified foods that are nutrient-dense, as hydration cues can weaken among people using weight loss medication and they also need to get the most nutrition from fewer calories.”

Vogel said appetite suppression was also making smaller portions more the norm, including for indulgence foods, while there was evidence of a move away from ultraprocessed foods among those on GLP-1s.

^{1. The GLP-1 RA boom: Trends in publicly subsidised and private access in Australia, 2020-2025 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2025.10.30.25339120v1.full.pdf}

Image credit: iStock.com/MurzikNata