Cattle prices continue to rise

National cattle prices continue to trend upward, with feeder steer and processor cow prices leading the way, according to Rabobank Australia’s August 2025 update.

Processor cow prices — reflecting the US demand for lean trim — have moved above $3.50/kg, now exceeding feeder cattle prices from two months ago.

With the US now imposing a 50% tariff on Brazil (in addition to the 26.4% most-favoured-nation tariff), there is the possibility that US import prices for lean trim will rise further, potentially driving increased demand for processor cows. The normal drop in Australian cull dairy cow slaughter will also tighten domestic lean trim supply.

The national young cattle indicator was at $4.32/kg on 31 July — up 13% MOM.

RaboResearch states that cattle prices will continue to edge higher over the coming months, with processor cow prices likely showing the strongest gains, due to favourable rainfall forecasts for much of the country and good pasture biomass volumes in most cattle areas — although pasture growth may be more limited in some areas.

National weekly cattle slaughter continues to trend along slightly above 150,000 head per week. RaboResearch does not expect slaughter numbers to change much in the near term, given the abundant cattle supply, particularly in northern states.

Export volumes (150,435 tonnes swt) set a new monthly record in July — a 12% increase on the previous record set in June, capitalising on the record beef production volumes. However, such high volumes bring Australia close to triggering several trade agreement safeguards.

According to industry reports, the safeguard for China (208,300 tonnes) was reached in late July, allowing China to impose the 12% most-favoured-nation tariff on Australian beef imports.

At current export rates, safeguard thresholds for South Korea (192,206 tonnes) and the US (449,482 tonnes) are also likely to come into play in the coming months.

Although importing countries have limited alternative sources for beef, the update states that triggering these safeguards could increase the cost of Australian product and potentially disrupt processing demand as exporters try and manage volumes into export markets.

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