Australian wine industry needs new focus post China tariffs

Research from ABARES has found that China’s anti-dumping duties have seriously disrupted Australia’s wine trade.

The report, Australian wine in China: Impact of China’s anti-dumping duties, investigates the short- to medium-term consequences of China’s punitive anti-dumping measures on Australian wine exports.

ABARES Executive Director Dr Jared Greenville said China’s anti-dumping duties — ranging from 116% to 218% — will cause China’s imports of bottled wine from Australia to cease entirely.

“We expect that only 60% of wine destined for China will find a place in our other existing markets by 2025, unless we make the effort to find alternative markets or do things differently,” Dr Greenville said.

“While Australia exports wine to over 100 countries, the Chinese market was the largest in both export and volume for bottled wine, accounting for 40% of export value share and 24% of export volume share.

“Without growing existing markets or finding new ones, the export value of Australian wine in 2025 is expected to be $480 million lower. The total cost of the anti-dumping measures could be at least $2.4 billion over a five-year period.

“For wine grape growers, the loss of production would be $67 million annually. This represents annual losses of $11 million in the Riverina, $11 million for the Victoria-North West region, $23 million for South Australia-South East region and $21 million for growers everywhere else.

“This isn’t to spell doom and gloom; it’s an outcome that can be avoided if we look at finding other markets for Australian wine or find ways to generate more value from our wine sold into existing markets,” Greenville said.

“The Australian wine industry is resilient, and industry bodies and businesses have already had success in diverting to other markets. Since the beginning of the year, Australian wine exporters have managed to redirect around 30% of the wine destined for China. They’re well on the way.”

The Chinese Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) first initiated the tariffs after an investigation on Australian wine exports in August last year. After imposing an interim tariff in November, the Ministry committed to the latest round of tariffs, stating it could last for five years.

The World Trade Organisation was contacted by Australia in June to help resolve the dispute.

Image credit: ©stock.adobe.com/au/Максим Точилкин