Climate change would lead to food system domino effect

A new study from University of Sydney researchers has showed that climate change could have a negative impact on Australia’s food systems and supply chains, with rural areas left the worst off.

The scientists developed a framework to analyse how a changing climate would impact various sectors and regions across Australia. The study found that extreme weather would result in negative impacts being felt on jobs and incomes, as well as a reduction in nutrient availability and diet quality.

Additionally, the negative effects would not only be felt just by farmers and manufacturers, but also by other fields like logistics and food service.

“Climate change can directly impact our economy, livelihoods and health. Disruptions caused by extreme weather events can cascade across regions and sectors, resulting in job and income losses and impacts on food availability,” said study author Dr Arunima Malik, who was a lead author of the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report.

“Our study has sought to model the indirect supply-chain repercussions of these events to bolster our understanding of interconnected supply chain networks and to promote climate preparedness.”

The study found that extreme weather could lead to food price increases and a drop in food quality. This would have a larger impact on poorer households than more affluent ones. Even areas not directly affected by weather like cyclones, flooding or bushfires will be impacted due to knock-on effects, the researchers said.

Co-author Dr Sinead Boylan, a nutrition systems scientist at CSIRO, said: “This research highlights that climate change may not only affect food supply in NSW, but access to healthy and equitable diets, particularly among the most vulnerable populations. These findings could help inform mitigation strategies to help these communities adapt.”

The researchers said that the framework developed in the study could be used by governmental and organising bodies to help with decision-makers, since it gives them the ability to predict where and how climate change would affect supply chains.

“It is vitally important that communities and organisations have an awareness of these impacts to encourage better mitigation planning and climate change resilience,” Malik said.

“The cascading effects, generated by continuing climate variability and more frequent extreme weather events, not only disrupt supply chains, but may also trigger zoonotic diseases, foodborne epidemics and broad socio-demographic stresses, including inter-regional migration and social unrest. It’s vital that we understand these impacts so we can build a more resilient society.”

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