CSIRO's contribution to global food security

CSIRO’s work on predicting Australia’s agricultural future is gaining international attention, with Dr Steve Hatfield-Dodds, leader of CSIRO’s integration science and modelling work, presenting a paper at the 50th birthday celebration conference for the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (known as CIMMYT by its Spanish acronym).

The conference is themed: ‘Turning research into impact: past, present and future’ and Hatfield-Dodds’s paper is titled 2015 Australian National Outlook.

CIMMYT is the organisation that catalysed the ‘Green Revolution’ and is known for its work in improving crop yields and food security. This year marks CIMMYT’s 50th anniversary, with celebrations taking place in Mexico.

CSIRO’s outlook linked nine national and global models to provide an integrated analysis of economic activity, agriculture and food, energy, water, land use, biodiversity, material flows and climate change.

“The aim of the outlook was to find and explore the ways Australia could navigate through interconnected future challenges, to better meet the needs of a growing national and global population,” Dr Hatfield-Dodds said.

“These challenges are not unique to Australia, and CIMMYT can see how the flexible integrated approach demonstrated by CSIRO can help identify and test options for reducing poverty and improving food security across diverse developing world contexts,” he said.

While CIMMYT is best known for supplying the world with hardier and higher-yielding wheat and maize varieties, the best science estimates this is only likely to contribute about half of the productivity gains needed to meet future food demands, with the remainder needing to come from more productive and efficient farming systems, such as precision maize and wheat farming, with efficient use of soil, water and fertiliser.

“In Australia, the outlook told us that for agriculture to thrive, we need to focus our efforts on innovative technologies, enabling infrastructure, and meeting and developing new markets for agrifood exports,” Dr Hatfield-Dodds said.

“Most importantly, the outlook highlighted the need for continuing agricultural productivity increases to meet greater demand globally and that higher food and energy costs were likely,” he said.

The outlook also revealed significant opportunities for reducing carbon emissions, promoting voluntary conservation and diversifying farm incomes.

While it warned of future challenges for agriculture in the face of climate change, it showed that with the right choices, sustainability and economic growth can be partners rather than competitors.

“With the outlook, we have shown how analysing interactions across different sectors can help identify new opportunities, unlocking previously unrecognised potential and improving risk management,” said Dr Hatfield-Dodds.